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Wulff, D., Markant, D., & Pleskac, T. J. (2019). Adaptive exploration: What you see is up to you. In R. Hertwig, T. Pleskac, T. Pachur, & the Center for Adaptive Rationality (Eds.), Taming uncertainty (pp. xx–xx). Boston, MA: MIT Press. doi:XXXXXXX

Chapter 7 Adaptive Exploration: What You See is Up to You

Thanks for participating. You have already finished all the decision from description and decision from experience trials. Below you can find the results of all submitted data.

In this interactive element you will experience the experiment described in Chapter 7. There are two different paradigms for you to try: decisions from description and decisions from experience. Trying out both allows you to discover something about how you yourself behave in these two conditions. We will also show you a chart so you can see how your behaviour compares to that of participants in the original set of experiments as well as other visitors to this website.

We have randomly selected for you to begin with. If you want to try out the other paradigm you can do so by toggling between Description and Experience below. After you complete the paradigm you will be automatically switched to the other paradigm. To complete the element please do both the Description and Experience conditions.

The game mode is now set to .

During the experience paradigm, you will be presented with four problems that ask you to make a choice (one by one) between two gambles. You will not get descriptions of the gambles, so to make a choice you must sample from the gambles to get a feel for their outcomes. You can sample from either gamble as many times as you like. When you feel confident enough to make a choice, click on the corresponding blue submit button. During the description paradigm, you will be presented with four problems that ask you to make a choice (one by one) between two gambles. Descriptions of the gambles will be shown in the corresponding box. When you are ready to make a choice, click on the blue submit button.
Problem: 1 of 4

Problem Gamble options Description Experience
Risky Safe Your choice % of online respondents preferred risky % from Wulff et al. (2018) preferred risky Your choice % of online respondents preferred risky % from Wulff et al. (2018) preferred risky Your sample size Mean sample size Mean sample size from Wulff et al. (2018)
The data from Wulff et al. (2018) aggregates the data across all published studies of the description–experience gap.
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You just experienced the experimental conditions typically used to study the description–experience gap. In decisions from description, the canonical finding is that people make choices as if they overweight the rare event. So in problem 1 they prefer the safe option and in problem 2 they prefer the risky option; when these same gambles represent losses (problems 3 and 4) the preferences reverse and they prefer the risky option in problem 3 and the safe option in problem 4. This has been called the fourfold risk pattern.

Here’s where things get even more interesting: The full pattern typically reverses in decisions from experience, where people make choices as if they underweight the rare event.

How did you choose? How does this stack up against other respondents? For more information on the fourfold risk pattern and the role that search and exploration play in it please refer to Chapter 7 of Taming Uncertainty.

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